Why it won't be UKIP that leads to Cameron's demise, but himself...

 

There has been much written in recent months about the rise of UKIP and what is perceived to be the resulting decline in the prospect of a Conservative majority in 2015.  This has lead to talk (from outside of UKIP it must be said) of an electoral pact between the two right-of-centre parties.

 

Although much that has been written about UKIP of late doesn’t hold up to any meaningful scrutiny – for example, contrary to their portrayal in much of the media, the EU ranks as only the third most important issue amongst UKIP supporters – that they appear to be benefitting from their stance on ‘equal marriage’, as widely reported over the weekend, does appear to stand up.

 

The Sunday headlines were predictably dominated by UKIP’s rise to 14%, securing a clear third place, in this month’s Comres poll for theIndependent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror:

 

Conservative 28% (-3%)

Labour 39% (-4%)
UKIP 14% (+6%)
Lib Dem 9% (-1%)
Others 9% (+1%)

Despite the headlines, the polling isn’t all bad news for the Conservatives. They continue to be more trusted on the economy than Labour, which is widely expected to be the key battleground come the 2015 election.  But drill down further into the in depth polling and a worrying picture emerges for Cameron.

 

It’s well documented that older people tend to be more likely to vote in elections than younger people.  They also tend to be far more likely to identify with and vote for Conservatives. Amongst 55-64 year olds, Comres finds that Conservatives hold a one point lead over Labour; this lead rises to 8 points amongst those aged 65+.

 

Whilst these figures tend to be relatively stable – certainly more so than amongst those younger voters – Conservative support amongst the key 65+ age group has fallen four points in a month, to 30%. This is despite, according to Comres, 44% of this age group, generally speaking, identifying themselves as Conservatives.

 

Put another way, one in three Conservatives aged 65+ would cast their votes elsewhere if there was an election tomorrow.

 

Tellingly, over the same period support for UKIP amongst this age group has surged by five points, to 21%.

 

Of course, it would be reckless to purport these figures illustrate support switching from Conservative to UKIP over any one single issue.  That said, the polling does add weight to the suggestion that Conservative voters, no longer just activists, are being haemorrhaged to UKIP as a consequence of Cameron’s ‘equal marriage’ crusade.

 

It’s hardly a surprise that ‘equal marriage’ enjoys considerably less support amongst older voters.  What is, perhaps, more surprising is the criticism of Cameron’s leadership on the matter from those minded to vote UKIP, with a huge 74% being critical of the Prime Minister – this compares to figures of 51% and 31% amongst Labour and Conservative voters respectively.

 

With UKIP maintaining a consistent stance on marriage – they accused the government of ‘picking a fight’ with religious groups earlier this year – they are increasingly becoming the logical, the only, alternative for those of all political persuasions who are vehemently opposed to ‘equal marriage’.

 

Whilst I may indeed be guilty of making too many inferences from what is only two months’ polling, if these patterns are repeated in the months to come they will represent a major headache for the Prime Minister. (So watch out for more good news for pensioners in coming budgets).

 

Should Cameron fail to deliver a Conservative majority in 2015, the blame will lie fairly and squarely at his door. It will not be because of the activity of UKIP, not even because of Cameron and Clegg’s civil partnership.

 

Cameron’s political obituary will lead with his electoral suicide over ‘equal marriage’ and his alienation of an entire generation of Conservatives.